Mutual funds are one of the most popular investment options for both novice and experienced investors. They offer a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other assets that are managed by a professional fund manager. However, not all mutual funds are created equal. There are various types of mutual funds that cater to different investment goals and risk appetites. In this comprehensive overview, we will delve into the different types of mutual funds, ranging from equity funds to debt funds, and everything in between. We will explore the characteristics of each fund, the risks involved, and how to choose the most suitable fund for your investment needs. So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this guide will provide you with the knowledge and tools you need to navigate the world of mutual funds and make informed investment decisions.
Equity mutual funds
Equity mutual funds are those that invest primarily in stocks or equity-related instruments. These funds are ideal for investors who are willing to take on higher risk in exchange for potentially higher returns. Equity funds are further classified based on the size of the companies they invest in. Large-cap funds invest in well-established, large companies, mid-cap funds invest in medium-sized companies, and small-cap funds invest in smaller, less-established companies.
Investing in equity mutual funds can be beneficial in the long run. Historically, equity markets have delivered higher returns compared to other asset classes such as debt and gold. However, equity markets can be volatile and subject to sudden changes. Therefore, investors must be prepared to hold their investments for the long term and weather any short-term market fluctuations.
When choosing an equity mutual fund, investors should consider the fund’s investment objective, the fund manager’s track record, the fund’s expense ratio, and the fund’s past performance. It is also important to diversify investments across multiple equity funds to minimize risk and maximize returns.
Debt mutual funds
Debt mutual funds are those that invest primarily in fixed-income securities such as bonds, government securities, and money market instruments. These funds are ideal for investors who are looking for steady income and low to moderate risk. Debt funds are further classified based on the type of securities they invest in. For example, short-term debt funds invest in securities with a maturity of up to one year, whereas long-term debt funds invest in securities with a maturity of more than one year.
Investing in debt mutual funds can be beneficial for investors who want to earn higher returns than traditional fixed deposits or savings accounts. Debt funds are less volatile than equity funds and can provide stable returns even during market downturns. However, investors should be aware that debt funds are not risk-free and are subject to credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk.
When choosing a debt mutual fund, investors should consider the fund’s investment objective, the fund manager’s track record, the fund’s credit rating, and the fund’s expense ratio. It is also important to note that debt funds are taxed differently than equity funds. Short-term capital gains (investments held for less than three years) are taxed at an investor’s income tax slab rate, whereas long-term capital gains (investments held for more than three years) are taxed at a flat rate of 20%.
Hybrid mutual funds
Hybrid mutual funds are those that invest in a mix of equity and debt instruments. These funds are ideal for investors who want to balance risk and returns. Hybrid funds are further classified based on their asset allocation. For example, balanced funds invest in a 50:50 mix of equity and debt, whereas aggressive hybrid funds invest in a higher proportion of equity compared to debt.
Investing in hybrid mutual funds can be beneficial for investors who want to achieve a balance between steady income and potential capital appreciation. Hybrid funds can provide a cushion against market volatility while also offering the potential for higher returns. However, investors should be aware that the returns of hybrid funds are subject to the performance of both equity and debt markets.
When choosing a hybrid mutual fund, investors should consider the fund’s investment objective, the fund manager’s track record, the fund’s asset allocation, and the fund’s expense ratio. It is also important to diversify investments across multiple hybrid funds to minimize risk and maximize returns.
Index mutual funds
Index mutual funds are those that track a specific market index such as the Nifty 50 or the BSE Sensex. These funds invest in the same stocks that make up the index and aim to replicate the performance of the index. Index funds are ideal for investors who want to passively invest in the market and earn returns that are in line with the overall market performance.
Investing in index mutual funds can be beneficial for investors who want to minimize risk and maximize returns. Index funds have lower expense ratios compared to actively managed funds and can provide consistent returns over the long term. However, investors should be aware that index funds are subject to market volatility and may underperform during market downturns.
When choosing an index mutual fund, investors should consider the fund’s expense ratio, the fund’s tracking error (the difference between the fund’s performance and the index’s performance), and the fund’s investment objective. It is also important to note that index funds may not provide the same level of diversification as actively managed funds.
Sectoral mutual funds
Sectoral mutual funds are those that invest primarily in stocks of a particular sector such as healthcare, technology, or energy. These funds are ideal for investors who want to invest in a specific sector that they believe will perform well in the future. Sectoral funds are further classified based on the sector they invest in.
Investing in sectoral mutual funds can be beneficial for investors who want to capitalize on the growth potential of a specific sector. Sectoral funds can provide higher returns compared to diversified funds if the sector performs well. However, investors should be aware that sectoral funds are highly concentrated and are subject to the performance of a single sector.
When choosing a sectoral mutual fund, investors should consider the fund’s investment objective, the fund manager’s track record, the fund’s expense ratio, and the fund’s past performance. It is also important to diversify investments across multiple sectors to minimize risk and maximize returns.
International mutual funds
International mutual funds are those that invest primarily in stocks or bonds of companies located outside the investor’s home country. These funds are ideal for investors who want to diversify their portfolio beyond domestic markets. International funds are further classified based on the region or country they invest in.
Investing in international mutual funds can be beneficial for investors who want to take advantage of global growth opportunities and diversify their portfolio. International funds can provide exposure to different markets and industries that may not be available in the domestic market. However, investors should be aware that international funds are subject to currency risk, political risk, and regulatory risk.
When choosing an international mutual fund, investors should consider the fund’s investment objective, the fund manager’s track record, the fund’s expense ratio, and the fund’s exposure to different markets. It is also important to diversify investments across multiple international funds to minimize risk and maximize returns.
Mutual fund taxation
Mutual fund taxation is an important aspect that investors should consider before investing in mutual funds. Mutual funds are subject to capital gains tax, which is levied on the gains made from selling mutual fund units. Short-term capital gains (investments held for less than three years) are taxed at an investor’s income tax slab rate, whereas long-term capital gains (investments held for more than three years) are taxed at a flat rate of 20%.
Mutual funds also offer tax-saving options such as Equity Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS) and Tax-Saving Fixed Deposits (FDs). ELSS funds offer tax benefits under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act, whereas Tax-Saving FDs offer tax benefits under Section 80C and Section 80TTA.
When choosing a mutual fund, investors should consider the tax implications of their investments and choose funds that offer tax-saving options.
Choosing the right mutual fund type
Choosing the right mutual fund type can be a daunting task, especially for novice investors. However, by considering the following factors, investors can choose the most suitable mutual fund type for their investment needs:
– Investment objective: Investors should consider their investment goals and risk appetite before investing in mutual funds. Equity funds are ideal for investors who want to take on higher risk for potentially higher returns, whereas debt funds are ideal for investors who want steady income and low to moderate risk.
– Fund manager’s track record: Investors should research the fund manager’s track record and performance before investing in mutual funds. A fund manager with a proven track record of consistently delivering good returns can be a good indicator of future performance.
– Expense ratio: Investors should consider the expense ratio of mutual funds before investing. Lower expense ratios can result in higher returns over the long term.
– Past performance: Investors should consider the past performance of mutual funds before investing. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns and investors should also consider other factors before investing.
– Diversification: Investors should diversify their investments across multiple mutual funds to minimize risk and maximize returns.
Mutual fund investment tips
Investing in mutual funds can be a rewarding experience if done correctly. Here are some tips that investors should keep in mind before investing in mutual funds:
– Invest for the long term: Mutual funds are ideal for long-term investments. Investors should be prepared to hold their investments for at least 3-5 years to weather any short-term market fluctuations.
– Diversify your investments: Diversification is key to minimizing risk and maximizing returns. Investors should diversify their investments across multiple mutual funds and asset classes.
– Consider your risk appetite: Investors should consider their risk appetite before investing in mutual funds. Equity funds are ideal for investors who can tolerate higher risk, whereas debt funds are ideal for investors who want steady income and lower risk.
– Keep track of your investments: Investors should regularly review their investments and make necessary changes to their portfolio if required.
– Consult a financial advisor: Investors who are unsure about their investment decisions should consult a financial advisor before investing in mutual funds.
Conclusion
Mutual funds are a great investment option for investors who want to diversify their portfolio and achieve their investment goals. By understanding the different types of mutual funds and considering the factors mentioned above, investors can choose the most suitable mutual fund type for their investment needs. However, investors should also be aware of the risks involved and should invest for the long term to maximize returns. With the right knowledge and tools, investors can navigate the world of mutual funds and make informed investment decisions for a secure financial future.
When it comes to investing money, there are countless options available. However, if you’re looking for a secure investment option with higher interest rates and potential financial growth, Certificates of Deposit (CDs) may be the answer.
Key Takeaways:
Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are a secure investment option.
CDs offer higher interest rates compared to regular savings accounts.
CDs have fixed terms and predictable returns.
What are Certificates of Deposit (CDs)?
Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are a type of time deposit that allows investors to earn higher interest rates than regular savings accounts. CDs are issued by banks and other financial institutions and are considered a secure investment option.
CDs have fixed terms, ranging from a few months to several years, during which the investor agrees to keep their funds deposited. In return, the bank pays a fixed interest rate for the duration of the term. The interest rate for CDs is typically higher than that of savings accounts due to the fixed term commitment of the investor.
CDs are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), meaning that they are considered very secure investments.
Types of Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
Certificates of Deposit (CDs) come in various types, from traditional CDs to jumbo CDs and liquid CDs. Each type offers different terms, minimum deposit requirements, and liquidity options. Here are the main types of CDs:
Type of CD
Description
Traditional CD
A CD with a fixed term, typically ranging from 3 months to 5 years, and a higher interest rate than regular savings accounts. Early withdrawal may incur a penalty.
Jumbo CD
A CD that requires a higher minimum deposit, usually $100,000 or more. Jumbo CDs often offer higher interest rates than traditional CDs.
Liquid CD
A CD that allows penalty-free early withdrawal, but typically offers lower interest rates than traditional CDs. The fixed term may also be shorter, ranging from a few weeks to a year.
Keep in mind that the type of CD that is best for you depends on your investment goals, financial situation, and risk tolerance. It’s important to compare CD rates and terms from different banks before making a decision.
Benefits of Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
Certificates of Deposit (CDs) offer several benefits for those looking for a secure investment option with higher interest rates and predictable returns.
Benefit
Description
Secure Investment
CDs are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to $250,000 per depositor, making them a secure investment option.
Higher Interest Rates
CDs typically offer higher interest rates than regular savings accounts, allowing for potential financial growth over the term of the investment.
Predictable Returns
The interest rate and term of the CD are fixed at the time of investment, providing a predictable return on investment at maturity.
Investing in CDs can be a smart move for those looking to earn more interest on their savings while minimizing risk. However, it is important to carefully consider the terms and conditions of the CD before investing to ensure it aligns with your financial goals and needs.
Risks of Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
While CDs are considered a secure investment option, there are still risks and considerations to keep in mind.
Early Withdrawal Penalties: Withdrawing funds from a CD before the end of the term can result in a penalty that may negate any earned interest. Make sure to carefully consider the term of the CD before investing.
Inflation Risk: Inflation can erode the value of the money earned on a CD over time, so it is important to consider the impact of inflation when choosing a CD.
Interest Rate Changes: Changes in interest rates can impact the return on investment for a CD, so it is important to monitor interest rates and invest accordingly.
Overall, CDs can be a valuable addition to a diversified investment portfolio, offering a secure and predictable way to earn more interest on savings.
How to invest in Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
Investing in Certificates of Deposit (CDs) can be a great way to grow your savings over time. Here are some steps to follow if you’re considering investing in a CD:
Choose a bank: Start by choosing a bank that offers CDs. You can do this by visiting a few different banks in person or researching online. Look for a bank that offers competitive interest rates and terms that suit your needs.
Compare rates and terms: Once you have a list of potential banks, compare the interest rates and terms of their CD offerings. Look for a CD with a high interest rate and a term that works for your financial goals.
Decide on the type of CD: There are different types of CDs to choose from, including traditional CDs, jumbo CDs, and liquid CDs. Choose the one that fits your needs and financial goals.
Open a CD account: Once you’ve chosen a bank and a CD, it’s time to open an account. You’ll need to provide identifying information and make a deposit to fund the CD.
Monitor your CD: After opening a CD, be sure to keep track of its progress and maturity date. Some CDs automatically renew, while others require action on your part. Set a reminder for yourself to avoid missing out on any potential gains.
By following these steps, you can begin investing in Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and potentially benefit from their higher interest rates and predictable returns.
Risks and Considerations of Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
While Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are generally considered a secure investment option, there are still risks and considerations to keep in mind before investing your money.
One potential risk is early withdrawal penalties. If you need to withdraw your funds before the CD maturity date, you may have to pay a penalty fee that could eat into your interest earnings. It’s important to carefully consider your financial needs before investing in a CD and make sure you won’t need the funds before the CD matures.
Another consideration is the risk of inflation. While CDs offer higher interest rates than regular savings accounts, they may not keep pace with inflation. This means that over time, the purchasing power of your investment may decrease.
Additionally, changes in interest rates can impact the value of your CD. If interest rates rise, you may miss out on the opportunity to earn higher returns on your investment. On the other hand, if interest rates fall, you may be stuck with a lower interest rate for the duration of your CD term.
It’s important to carefully evaluate the risks and benefits of investing in CDs and consider whether they align with your overall financial goals and needs.
Conclusion
Certificates of Deposit (CDs) offer a secure investment option with higher interest rates than traditional savings accounts, making them an attractive option for those seeking financial growth. By locking in a fixed term with a set interest rate, investors can predict their returns and effectively plan for the future.
There are various types of CDs available, including traditional, jumbo, and liquid CDs, each with their own terms and liquidity options. When investing in CDs, it’s important to choose a bank with competitive rates and terms and to carefully consider the potential risks, such as early withdrawal penalties and inflation risk.
Despite these considerations, CDs remain a valuable investment option for those looking for a stable, low-risk way to earn a return on their money. By following the tips outlined in this article and working with a reputable financial institution, investors can confidently grow their wealth with Certificates of Deposit.
As the world becomes more and more connected, investors are increasingly looking for opportunities to diversify their portfolios. Sharia-compliant bonds, also known as sukuk, are one such option that has seen a surge in popularity in recent years. But what exactly are these bonds, and how do they differ from traditional bonds? In this comprehensive guide, we’ll take a deep dive into the world of Sharia-compliant bonds, exploring their origins, structure, and key features. We’ll also examine the growing demand for these bonds and the potential benefits and risks for investors looking to add them to their portfolios. Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking to expand your horizons or a newcomer to the world of finance, this guide will provide you with the knowledge and insights you need to make informed decisions about Sharia-compliant bonds. So buckle up and get ready to learn everything you need to know about this fascinating and increasingly important asset class.
What are Sharia-compliant bonds?
Sharia-compliant bonds, or sukuk, are financial instruments that comply with Islamic law. Sharia law prohibits the payment or receipt of interest, which means that traditional bonds, which typically involve the payment of interest, are not permissible. Instead, sukuk are structured as profit-sharing agreements, where investors receive a share of the profits generated by the underlying assets.
Sukuk can be used to finance a wide range of projects, including infrastructure development, real estate, and corporate financing. They are typically issued by governments, corporations, or other entities seeking to raise capital. The proceeds from the sale of sukuk are used to fund these projects, and investors receive a share of the profits generated by the underlying assets.
Sukuk can be structured in a variety of ways, including as asset-backed securities, where the underlying assets serve as collateral for the bonds, or as project finance securities, where the bonds are backed by the revenue generated by a specific project.
Key differences between Sharia-compliant and conventional bonds
The key difference between Sharia-compliant and conventional bonds is the way in which they generate returns for investors. Conventional bonds typically involve the payment of interest, which is not permissible under Islamic law. In contrast, sukuk are based on profit-sharing agreements, where investors receive a share of the profits generated by the underlying assets.
Another key difference is the way in which sukuk are structured. Unlike conventional bonds, which are typically issued as debt securities, sukuk can be structured in a variety of ways, including as asset-backed securities, project finance securities, or as trust certificates.
Finally, the way in which sukuk are rated is also different from conventional bonds. While conventional bonds are typically rated by credit rating agencies, sukuk are rated by Sharia scholars, who evaluate the compliance of the structure with Islamic law. This means that there is a greater emphasis on the underlying assets and the structure of the sukuk, rather than the creditworthiness of the issuer.
Sharia-compliant bond structures
As mentioned earlier, sukuk can be structured in a variety of ways, depending on the nature of the underlying assets and the needs of the issuer. The most common types of sukuk structures include:
**Asset-backed securities:** In this structure, the sukuk are backed by specific assets, such as real estate or infrastructure projects. The sukuk holders have an ownership interest in the underlying assets, and receive a share of the profits generated by those assets.
**Project finance securities:** In this structure, the sukuk are backed by the revenue generated by a specific project, such as a toll road or power plant. The sukuk holders are entitled to a share of the revenue generated by the project, and bear the risk of any project-related losses.
**Trust certificates:** In this structure, the sukuk are issued by a trust, which holds the underlying assets on behalf of the sukuk holders. The sukuk holders have an ownership interest in the trust, and receive a share of the profits generated by the underlying assets.
Benefits of investing in Sharia-compliant bonds
There are several potential benefits of investing in Sharia-compliant bonds, including:
**Diversification:** Investing in sukuk can provide diversification benefits to investors, as they offer exposure to a different asset class than traditional bonds. Sukuk are also less correlated with other asset classes, which can help to reduce overall portfolio risk.
**Stable returns:** Sukuk are typically structured to provide stable returns to investors, as they are based on profit-sharing agreements rather than the payment of interest. This can make them an attractive investment option for investors seeking stable income streams.
**Ethical investing:** Sharia-compliant investing is based on ethical principles, which can be attractive to investors who are looking to align their investments with their values.
Risks associated with Sharia-compliant bonds
As with any investment, there are also risks associated with investing in Sharia-compliant bonds. Some of the key risks include:
Lack of liquidity: The sukuk market is relatively small and illiquid compared to the conventional bond market. This can make it difficult for investors to buy and sell sukuk, and can also result in wider bid-ask spreads and higher transaction costs.
Market and credit risk: Sukuk are subject to market and credit risk, just like conventional bonds. The value of sukuk can fluctuate based on changes in interest rates, creditworthiness of the issuer, and other market factors.
Structural risk: The structure of sukuk can also create additional risks for investors. For example, in an asset-backed securities structure, the value of the sukuk may be tied to the performance of the underlying assets, which could be affected by factors outside of the issuer’s control.
The global market for Sharia-compliant bonds
The market for Sharia-compliant bonds has grown rapidly in recent years, as demand for Islamic finance has increased. According to the Islamic Finance Development Report 2020, the global sukuk market reached a total value of $476.3 billion in 2019, up from $447.2 billion in 2018.
The majority of sukuk issuances are concentrated in Malaysia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Malaysia accounting for the largest share of sukuk issuances. However, sukuk are also becoming increasingly popular in other regions, including Europe and Africa.
How to invest in Sharia-compliant bonds
Investing in Sharia-compliant bonds can be done through a variety of channels, including through banks, asset managers, and specialized Islamic finance firms. Investors can also invest in sukuk through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds that focus on Islamic finance.
It’s important for investors to do their due diligence when investing in sukuk, and to carefully evaluate the structure and creditworthiness of the issuer. Investors should also be aware of any additional risks associated with the specific sukuk structure, such as market or structural risk.
Sharia-compliant bond issuers and ratings
Sukuk can be issued by a wide range of entities, including governments, corporations, and other organizations. The creditworthiness of the issuer is an important consideration for investors, as it can affect the risk and return profile of the sukuk.
In addition to creditworthiness, sukuk are also rated by Sharia scholars, who evaluate the compliance of the structure with Islamic law. This rating process is different from the credit rating process used for conventional bonds, and emphasizes the underlying assets and structure of the sukuk, rather than the creditworthiness of the issuer.
Conclusion
Sharia-compliant bonds, or sukuk, are becoming an increasingly popular option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and align their investments with their values. Sukuk are structured as profit-sharing agreements, and can be used to finance a wide range of projects. While sukuk offer several potential benefits to investors, including diversification and stable returns, there are also risks associated with investing in this asset class. It’s important for investors to carefully evaluate the structure and creditworthiness of the issuer, and to be aware of any additional risks associated with the specific sukuk structure. Overall, sukuk represent an exciting and increasingly important asset class that investors should consider as part of a diversified investment portfolio.
Modern Mills company (MMC), one of main four pillars in Saudi Arabia wheat milling industry, is selling 30% stake (24.5mn shares) in Tadawul market. The IPO had a price range of SAR44-48 per share and a market value of SAR1.2bn based on maximum offering price. We valued MMC at SAR68.9/share (+50% expected upside to the IPO offering price mid range), using DCF and relative valuation models.
Modern Mills company (MMC) is a trailblazer in the grain milling landscape, setting new standards for excellence and efficiency. MMC is set to help the Kingdom strengthen its food security, by providing and producing flour products in different regions of the Kingdom.
Recently, Saudi Arabia split the government-managed flour milling industry into four companies and sold them to the private sector. First Milling Co. was the first to go public in May 2023 in a USD266mn IPO.
IPO highlights: MMC is offering a maximum of 24.5mn shares (30%) of its shares, for sale through an IPO in Saudi capital market. MadaInternational Holding Company (50%), Al Ghurair Foods (45%) and Masafi Co. (5%)will sell around 24mn shares of their ownership. The Final Offer Price will be set within a range between SAR 44 – 48 per share, implying an offer size of c. SAR1.2bn.
Around 22.1mn shares (90% of IPO shares) will be offered to institutional investors. Around 2.5mn shares (10% of IPO) will be offered to retail investors.
Use of Offering Proceeds: Around SAR41mn (exclusive of VAT) of the total offering proceeds will be used to settle all expenses related to the offering, including the fees paid to the Saudi Exchange Company and the Securities Depositary Center Company.
The Offering Proceeds will be distributed to the selling shareholders pro-rata, based on the number of offered shares to be sold by each of them in the offering. The Company will not receive any part of the net offering proceeds. The selling shareholders will bear all fees, expenses and costs related to the Offering.
Offering Details
Important Dates
Description
15-Feb-24
Price range announcemnt
15-Feb-24
Start of institutional book building
21-Feb-24
End of institutional book building
Price announcement
5-Feb-24
Starting date for retail subscription
6-Feb-24
Last date for retail subscription (Retail offering)
Other Highlights
Offering price (SAR/share)
(44-48)
Shares offered (mn shares)
24.5
Offering size (SARmn)*
1,178
Institutional / Retail Tranches (% of total offering)
90%/10%
* Offering size is based on IPO maximum offering price
Summary KPI’s
FY End: Dec (SARmn)
FY20a
FY21a
FY22a
Revenue
435
555
978
Gross profit
138
162
366
EBITDA
120
141
324
Net Income
65
80
233
Revenue Growth (%)
NA
28%
76%
GP Growth (%)
NA
18%
125%
EBITDA Growth (%)
NA
18%
130%
Net Income Growth (%)
NA
22%
193%
GP Margin (%)
31.7%
29.3%
37.4%
EBITDA Margin (%)
27.5%
25.4%
33.2%
Net Profit Margin (%)
14.9%
14.3%
23.8%
Net Debt (Cash)
-345
598
462
EPS (SAR)
0.72
9.72
28.47
BVPS (SAR)
12.65
11.96
21.80
PER (x)
66.5x
4.9x
1.7x
PBV (x)
3.8x
4.0x
2.2x
ROE (%)
6%
81%
131%
MCC Company Profile
Market Pillar in Wheat Milling Industry
MMC is a Saudi joint-stock company that was initially established under the Saudi Grains Organization in 1972. MMC was previously known as “Third Milling Company” or “MC3” and was owned by the Public Investment Fund. It was subsequently acquired for SAR818mn by a consortium that includes MADA Holding and UAE-based Al Ghurair Foods in 2021. Following this merger, the new ownership structure of the Company became as follows: Mada International Holding Company (50%), Al Ghurair Foods (45%), and Masafi Co. (5%).
MMC main activities are as follows: wheat packing and milling; barley packing and milling; manufacture of concentrated animal fodder; wholesale of barley; wholesale of bakery products; retail sale of barley; and storage in ports, customs areas, or free zones.
MMC revenues by products include:
Flour products: MMC manufactures flour products aimed at promoting food security within the Kingdom, with a primary focus on meeting the demands of end users such as: 1) Industrial & B2B (3.1% of total revenues), 2) bakeries, hospitality, restaurant and café (HORECA) (88.1% of total revenues), and 3) households (8.9% of total revenues). The flour products are available in both packaged and bulk formats, offering a range of pack sizes from 1 kg to 45 kg.
Animal feed products: Under the established feed brand name Premier, MMC prides itself on formulating high quality animal feed products with animal productivity and health as a top priority without compromising feed ingredients or quality. MMC produces a range of specialty poultry and livestock animal feed. Animal feed is typically sold in large packs of 40kg and 50kg to wholesalers and poultry farms, The pricing of animal feed products is not regulated which has yielded superior profit margins.
Animal bran is produced as a by-product of the flour milling process. MMC produces wheat bran for animal use in large packs of 40kg and in bulk and uses the majority of produced bran in internal animal feed production and sells the remaining part to appointed distributors, who then sell animal bran products to small livestock farms, and feed producers. The pricing of animal bran products is not regulated.
Production facilities: MMC is headquartered in Jeddah and its production facilities are located in three regions across the Kingdom, in Al-Jumum, Khamis Mushaitand Al-Jouf, with a current aggregate milling capacity of 3,450 tons per day (1.1mn ton per annum) and a feed plant capacity of 1,400 tons per day (368k tons / annum).
MMC plans to double the milling capacity at the Al-Jumum facility from 1,200 per day to 2,450 per day by 2025 by installing an additional milling line with a daily production capacity of 1,250 (which would be the largest in the Kingdom) in order to meet increasing demand in the Western region which driven by Hajj and Umrah.
MMC plans to increase productivity at its Khamis Mushait facility by upgrading of one of its mills with new, best in- class equipment, which will raise its production capacity from 1,650 per day to 1,800 per day.
MMC Business Model
Meeting the Demand from Kernel to Bag
Pricing scheme of flour: Based on Wheat Supply Agreement “WSA”, MMC purchases its main raw material, wheat, from its key supplier, the GFSA, which is the regulator in KSA that sells wheat to milling companies at a government subsidized price in accordance with the Subsidized and Unsubsidized Flour Supply Agreement that will be concluded with the Company on 12 July FY25.
Following the Company’s privatization in FY20, the GFSA committed to maintaining a price difference of SAR320per ton between the unified purchase cost of wheat (SAR180per ton) from all member countries and the selling price of flour products to end-users (around SAR500per ton depending on bulk packaging or 45 kg packs).
Accordingly, there might be 3 possible scenarios:
1- The existing subsidy scheme will remain unchanged: The current situation regarding the sale price of flour to end users and commitment to price differential by the GFSA remains as is.
2- The subsidy will be gradually phased out: The GFSA’s commitment to maintaining the price differential between the unified purchase cost of wheat from all member countries and the selling price of flour to end-users applies only to flour used in the production of bread.
3- Complete elimination of the subsidy: The Government will entirely eliminate the subsidy on all varieties of wheat and flour products in the market.
In scenario no. 2 & 3, MMC might seek alternative international suppliers to provide raw materials at global market prices without subsidies which might make the company face additional costs, potentially impacting its margins and overall profitability significantly.
Its’s worth mentioning that, MMC source around 42% of its flour needs from GFSA at the subsidized prices in 1H23.
Diversified portfolio: It’s worth mentioning that, MMC launched a set of retail brands, Qamhati which is top-tier flour brand offering a premium quality flour that produces professional grade baking results. Modern Mills is the Company’s mid-tier flour brand. Qoot & Root is the Company’s lower tier flour brand offering good quality at a lower price for everyday use.
MMC is also working to develop other value-added and higher margin products adjacent to its current product range, such as ready mixes and gluten-free flour, and to expand into additional product categories.
MMC hold a market share of 24%, and 7% in flour and feed, respectively.
Revenues growth: Revenues of flour products comprised 41% and 46% of the Company’s total revenues for FY22 and the 1H23, respectively. Revenue of flour products grew by 43% between 2020 and 2022, reflecting the result of the: 1) increase of quantities sold in various branches, 2) the enhancement of the market share in the sales areas during the Hajj and Umrah season and, 3) the return to school starting 3QFY21.
Feed revenues increased by 116.2% from SAR91.8mn in 2020 to SAR198.4mn in 2021, mainly driven by the increase in volumes sold by 52.4k tons from an improvement in market share for poultry following the adoption of a new strategy focusing on improved recipes to attract more customers, in addition to the increase in gross average revenue per ton by SAR387 on the back of the change in feed pricing strategy.
Revenue Segmentation
Revenues by type (SAR in mn)
FY20a
FY21a
FY22a
Flour
281
279
402
As % of total Revenue
65%
50%
41%
Feed
92
198
400
As % of total Revenue
21%
36%
41%
Animal Bran
63
78
176
As % of total Revenue
14%
14%
18%
Total
435
555
978
Source: IPO Prospectus
Revenues Breakdown
Unit
FY20
FY21
FY22
Flour
Price/ton
529.4
509.9
500.7
Growth
%
NA
-4%
-2%
Volume
000 ton
530.8
547.5
802.9
Growth
%
NA
3%
47%
Revenues
SAR mn
281
279
402
Growth
%
NA
-1%
44%
As % of Total Revenue
%
65%
50%
41%
Feed
Price/ton
841.2
1,228.5
1,625.6
Growth
%
NA
46%
32%
Volume
000 ton
109.1
161.5
246.0
Growth
%
NA
48%
52%
Revenues
SAR mn
92
198
400
Growth
%
NA
116%
102%
As % of Total Revenue
%
21%
36%
41%
Animal Bran
Price/ton
582.5
708.4
990.2
Growth
%
NA
22%
40%
Volume
000 ton
107.3
109.4
177.8
Growth
%
NA
2%
63%
Revenues
SAR mn
63
78
176
Growth
%
NA
24%
127%
As % of Total Revenue
%
14%
14%
18%
Total
AVG Price/ton
582.5
678.2
797.2
Growth
%
NA
16%
18%
Volume
000 ton
747
818
1,227
Growth
%
NA
10%
50%
Revenues
SAR mn
435
555
978
Growth
%
NA
28%
76%
Source: IPO Prospectus
White Flour Industry Overview
Solidly Grounded Sectors
Wheat flour market: Coupled with the Kingdom’s ongoing privatization efforts, food security ambitions have fostered a growth environment for the supply side of the food production and manufacturing sector. Saudi Arabia›s privatization efforts have extended to sectors within the country’s food supply chain. This move which began with the privatization of the four flour mills originally grouped by the Government, namely, MC1 (Now First Mills Company), MC2, MC3 (Now MMC), and MC4 extended into broader initiatives like the USD10bn (SAR37.5bn) Food Security Plan in 2022.
Traditionally, GFSA has been responsible for sourcing, storage and distribution of food-grade wheat. The Saudi wheat flour milling industry is undergoing transformation as the GFSA shifts toward a regulatory and quality inspection role, while the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) is expected to lead sourcing and storage of food-grade wheat.
Overall consumption was led mainly by bakeries and food manufacturers which mainly purchase 80% bakery type wheat flour in 45kg bags or in bulk volumes weighing more than 45kg. GFSA subsidizes wheat prices and regulates wheat flour prices in 45kg bags and bulk volumes, supplying registered bakeries and food businesses through distributors. Prices for 45kg bags vary from SAR 22 to SAR 30 per bag depending on the flour type.
Animal feed market In Saudi Arabia,demand for total compound animal feed in the accessible market surged by 16% in 2020 due to increased local poultry and red meat production during the pandemic, to reach 3.69mn tons. In 2020, subsidies on barley were removed, and the VAT rate was raised from 5% to 15%. Direct financial assistance was introduced for small-scale livestock and poultry farmers with a maximum of 300 animals, promoting nutrient-rich total compound animal feed.
As a result, value market size spiked by 20.6% to reach SAR4.27bn in 2020. However, in 2021, the pandemic›s lingering effects and global rising costs led to a 10.8% decline in demand, forcing many small farmers out of the market. This resulted in the market dropping to 3.29mn tons with an equivalent value market size of SAR4.39bn in 2021. The accessible total compound animal feed market is projected to grow at a 4.7% CAGR to reach around 5.1mn tons by 2030.
Competition positioning: MC1 in Jeddah enjoys cost-saving advantages due to its proximity to a flour mill and primarily focuses on livestock feed. MC2 and MC4, with daily production capacities of 600 and 300 tonnes, respectively, also emphasize livestock feed, serving different regions.
Categories in feed consumption (‘mn ton)
Market share by value
Source: IPO Prospectus
MMC Valuation
Expected Upside potential of 50%
Our AVG FV stands at SAR 68.9/share: Furthermore, alongside employing a discounted cash flow (DCF) model that yielded a FV of SAR82.6 per share, as illustrated in the corresponding table, an alternative valuation approach was undertaken through a relative valuation. This involved utilizing the median P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for FY24 pertaining to F&B companies in Saudi Arabia.
The median P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples derived from analogous emerging markets peers were applied to MMC expected earnings and EBITDA for the FY24 to ascertain a fair value for the company’s stock. Assigning equal weights to both valuation methodologies resulted in an average fair value of SAR68.9 per share, signifying a 50% increase compared to the IPO mid point offer price of SAR46 per share.
DCF – fair value SAR 82.6/ share: We discounted MMC’s free cash Flow to the firm (FCFF) over the coming five years (2024-2028) based on the following assumptions:
Revenues to grow at a 5-Year CAGR of 8.9% to SAR1.4bn by 2028 due to increasing capacity in 2025 and the high demand from hajj and Umrah.
EBITDA to grow at a 5-Year CAGR of 5.7% to SAR438mn by 2028, with EBITDA margin to stand at 31% on average during the forecasted period, in parallel with MMC historical average.
AVG CapEx as % of revenues of 3.4% in the forecast period, except for FY24 as the company to expand Al-Jumum capacity with estimated CapeEx of SAR200mn.
Working capital assumptions are based on historical averages cash conversion cycle (CCC).
Cost of Equity (COE) is 8.2%, calculated as follows: KSA implied risk-free rate of 3.1% on average during forecasted period (based on US risk free rate and inflation differential between KSA vs. USA), KSA’s Equity Risk Premium (ERP) of 6.3% (based on a US market ERP of 5.94% and a relative standard deviation of 1.06 between US and KSA equity markets returns), and a Beta of 0.8.
After tax cost of debt 5% on average.
Capital structure of AVG 76% equity and 24% debt, based on the market value of MMC equity of SAR1.2bn (based on the IPO max price).
Hence, we used a WACC of 7.7% in 2024e, which eventually declines to 7.1% by 2028e, with terminal year growth rate of 3%.
DCF Valuation
SAR mn, except per-share figures
FY24e
FY25e
FY26e
FY27e
FY28e
NOPLAT
236
286
296
307
319
Non – Cash Item
62
67
72
78
84
Gross Cash flow
298
353
369
385
403
Change in Working Capital
(43)
(25)
(5)
(6)
(6)
CAPEX
(200)
(43)
(44)
(46)
(48)
FCFF
55
285
319
334
350
Terminal value (TV)
8,801
PV of FCFF
51
250
262
256
6,564
Enterprise Value
7,383
Add: Cash (9M23)
168
Add: Investments (9M23)
0
Less: Debt (9M23)
(793)
Equity value
6,757
Number of Shares Outstanding
82
DCF Fair Value (SAR/ share)
82.6
IPO Offer Price
46.0
+/- Pot.
80%
Source: Mubasher Capital
Valuation (Cont’d)
Expected Upside potential of 50%
Multiples valuation: We used Saudi Arabia F&B peers’ median P/E and EV/EBITDA FY24 multiples and applied them to MMC’s expected earnings and EBITDA in FY24 to arrive at a fair value for the stock as follows:
P/E: Using peers’ median FY24 P/E of 26x and our forecasted net income for FY24, we arrived at a fair value of SAR60.2/ share.
EV/EBITDA: By applying peers’ median FY24 EV/EBITDA of 18x to our forecasted FY24 EBITDA, we arrived at a fair value of SAR 63.9/ share.
Our FV is SAR/ share based on equal weights: We assign equal weights to both valuation techniques, reaching a fair value of SAR 68.9/ share, which represents 50% higher than the IPO mid point price of SAR46per share.
Investment rationale:
Price of animal feed or animal bran is not regulated which allows higher margins.
Good relations (40 years) with key clients guarantees continuous future contracts.
Catering all types of consumers through top, mid and low tier products.
Revenues are almost 100% cash.
High potential for exports based on the company’s strategy.
High market share in wheat milling and feed industry of 24% and 7%, respectively.
Key Risks:
High competition in feed industry.
From one hand, Gradual or full removal of wheat subsidy provided by GFSA will expose MMC to higher unsubsidized wheat prices but on the other hand will allow selling flour products above the SAR500/ton cap regulated by GFSA.
High leverage with AVG D/E of 3.6x.
Outbreak of an infectious disease or other serious public health concerns.
Stronger foreign currencies may lead to an increase in wheat costs (main raw material) unless the company pass the increase.
Tighter monetary policies, such as high interest rate to fight high inflation rates may increase the finance cost.
In recent years, Murabaha financing has been gaining immense popularity among entrepreneurs. This Islamic financing method has been around for centuries but has only recently gained wider acceptance in the business world.
As traditional lending institutions become more stringent with their lending criteria, entrepreneurs are increasingly turning to Murabaha financing as a viable alternative.
This type of financing is based on a cost-plus-profit model that allows entrepreneurs to obtain financing without incurring interest.
The popularity of Murabaha financing has been further boosted by its compliance with Shariah law, which prohibits the charging or paying of interest.
This has made Murabaha financing an attractive option for Muslim entrepreneurs who are seeking funding for their ventures while adhering to their religious beliefs.
In this article, we will delve deeper into the reasons behind the growing popularity of Murabaha financing and explore why it could be the ideal financing solution for your business.
How Murabaha Financing Works
Murabaha financing is a type of Islamic financing that is based on a cost-plus-profit model. The financing provider purchases the asset that the entrepreneur wants to acquire and then sells it to the entrepreneur at a higher price.
The entrepreneur pays for the asset in installments, which include both the cost of the asset and the profit margin of the financing provider. The profit margin is agreed upon beforehand, and it is usually a percentage of the cost of the asset.
For example, if an entrepreneur wants to purchase a piece of equipment that costs $10,000, the financing provider will purchase the equipment and then sell it to the entrepreneur for $12,000.
The entrepreneur will pay for the equipment in installments, which include the cost of the equipment and the profit margin of the financing provider. The profit margin, in this case, might be 10% of the cost of the equipment, which would be $1,000.
Murabaha financing is different from conventional financing because it does not involve the charging or paying of interest. Instead, the financing provider earns a profit by selling the asset to the entrepreneur at a higher price than it was purchased for.
Benefits of Murabaha Financing for Entrepreneurs
Murabaha financing offers several benefits for entrepreneurs. One of the main benefits is that it allows entrepreneurs to obtain financing without incurring interest.
This is particularly attractive to Muslim entrepreneurs who want to adhere to their religious beliefs while obtaining financing for their ventures.
Another benefit of Murabaha financing is that it is based on a cost-plus-profit model, which means that the profit margin of the financing provider is agreed upon beforehand. This makes it easier for entrepreneurs to plan their finances and budget for the financing costs.
Murabaha financing is also a flexible financing solution. Entrepreneurs can use Murabaha financing to acquire a wide range of assets, including equipment, inventory, and real estate.
The financing provider does not require any collateral for Murabaha financing, which makes it easier for entrepreneurs to obtain financing.
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Murabaha Financing vs. Traditional Loans
Murabaha financing differs from traditional loans in several ways. Traditional loans involve the charging of interest, while Murabaha financing does not. Traditional loans also require collateral, while Murabaha financing does not.
Another difference between Murabaha financing and traditional loans is the level of risk involved. Murabaha financing is considered a lower-risk financing solution because the financing provider owns the asset until it is fully paid for.
This means that if the entrepreneur defaults on the financing, the financing provider can repossess the asset and sell it to recoup their investment.
Traditional loans, on the other hand, are considered higher-risk financing solutions because they often require collateral and involve the charging of interest. If the entrepreneur defaults on a traditional loan, the lender can seize the collateral and sell it to recoup their investment.
If the collateral is not enough to cover the loan, the lender may take legal action against the entrepreneur to recover the remaining debt.
Murabaha Financing Requirements and Eligibility
To be eligible for Murabaha financing, entrepreneurs must meet certain requirements. These requirements may vary depending on the financing provider, but they generally include:
– The entrepreneur must have a viable business plan and a clear understanding of the asset they want to acquire.
– The entrepreneur must have a good credit score and a stable source of income.
– The entrepreneur must be able to provide a down payment for the asset they want to acquire.
– The entrepreneur must be willing to sign a contract that outlines the terms and conditions of the financing.
Murabaha financing is available to both Muslim and non-Muslim entrepreneurs. However, Muslim entrepreneurs may prefer Murabaha financing because it is compliant with Shariah law.
Examples of Successful Murabaha Financing for Entrepreneurs
Murabaha financing has been used successfully by entrepreneurs in a wide range of industries. One example is a startup that used Murabaha financing to acquire inventory for their e-commerce store.
The entrepreneur was able to obtain financing without incurring interest and was able to repay the financing in installments that were based on a cost-plus-profit model.
Another example is a small business that used Murabaha financing to acquire a piece of equipment that they needed to expand their operations.
The business was able to obtain financing without providing collateral and was able to repay the financing in installments that were based on a cost-plus-profit model.
Murabaha Financing Providers and Options
Murabaha financing is offered by several financing providers, including Islamic banks and non-bank financial institutions. Some providers may specialize in Murabaha financing, while others may offer it as part of a wider range of Islamic financing solutions.
Entrepreneurs should research different Murabaha financing providers and options to find the one that best meets their needs.
They should compare the profit margins, repayment terms, and eligibility requirements of different providers to find the one that offers the most favorable terms.
Steps to Apply for Murabaha Financing
The steps to apply for Murabaha financing may vary depending on the financing provider, but they generally include:
1. Research different Murabaha financing providers and options to find the one that best meets your needs.
2. Contact the financing provider and inquire about their eligibility requirements and application process.
3. Prepare a business plan and a proposal that outlines the asset you want to acquire and your repayment plan.
4. Provide any necessary documentation, such as financial statements and credit reports.
5. Sign a contract that outlines the terms and conditions of the financing.
Risks and Considerations for Murabaha Financing
While Murabaha financing offers several benefits for entrepreneurs, there are also risks and considerations to keep in mind.
One risk is that the entrepreneur may default on the financing, which could result in the financing provider repossessing the asset and selling it to recoup their investment.
Another consideration is that Murabaha financing may be more expensive than traditional financing options. The profit margin of the financing provider is added to the cost of the asset, which can increase the overall cost of the financing.
Entrepreneurs should carefully consider their financing options and weigh the risks and benefits of Murabaha financing before deciding to pursue it.
Conclusion:
Murabaha financing offers several benefits for entrepreneurs, including the ability to obtain financing without incurring interest and flexibility in the types of assets that can be acquired.
However, there are also risks and considerations to keep in mind, such as the potential for default and the overall cost of the financing.
Entrepreneurs should carefully evaluate their financing options and consider their business needs and goals before deciding to pursue Murabaha financing.
By researching different financing providers and options, entrepreneurs can find the financing solution that best meets their needs and helps them achieve their business objectives.
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Are you familiar with sukuk? This financial instrument has been gaining popularity in recent years, particularly in the Islamic finance industry. But what exactly is it, and why should you care about it? Simply put, sukuk is an Islamic financial bond that complies with sharia law.
It’s a unique way for investors to participate in the ownership of an underlying asset or project, while also receiving a return on their investment. The rise of it has been fueled by the growing demand for ethical and socially responsible investment options.
In fact, sukuk has the potential to play a significant role in financing sustainable development projects around the world. Whether you’re an investor, a financial professional, or simply curious about different types of financial instruments, sukuk is definitely worth learning about.
In this article, we’ll give you a brief overview of what it is, how it works, and why it’s grabbing the attention of investors and policymakers alike.
Understanding the Principles of Islamic Finance
To fully understand sukuk, it’s important to have a basic understanding of Islamic finance. At the heart of Islamic finance is the principle of avoiding riba (interest). In Islamic finance, money is not considered a commodity that can be traded for more money. Instead, it is viewed as a means of exchange for goods and services.
Profit and loss sharing is also a fundamental principle of Islamic finance. This means that investors share in the profits and losses of a project or venture.
Another key principle of Islamic finance is the concept of asset-backed financing. This means that investments must be backed by tangible assets, such as property, equipment, or commodities. This is in contrast to conventional finance, where investments are often based on creditworthiness and future cash flows.
Islamic finance also prohibits investments in industries that are considered haram (forbidden), such as alcohol, gambling, and pork. Instead, investments are made in industries that are considered halal (permissible), such as healthcare, education, and renewable energy.
How Sukuk Differs from Conventional Bonds
Sukuk is often compared to conventional bonds, but there are some key differences between the two. Conventional bonds are essentially debt instruments, where the issuer borrows money from investors and promises to pay back the principal plus interest. Sukuk, on the other hand, are asset-backed securities.
When an investor buys it, they are actually buying a share of ownership in an underlying asset or project. The return on investment comes from the profits generated by the asset or project, rather than from interest payments.
Another key difference is the legal structure of it. Conventional bonds are governed by the laws of the country where they are issued. Sukuk, on the other hand, must comply with sharia law. This means that the underlying asset or project must be halal, and the sukuk structure must be approved by a sharia board of Islamic scholars.
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Types of Sukuk Structures
There are several different types of sukuk structures, each with its own unique characteristics. The most common types of sukuk structures are:
Mudaraba
Mudaraba is a profit-sharing agreement between an investor (rab al-mal) and a manager (mudarib). The investor provides the capital, while the manager provides the expertise and manages the project. The profits are distributed according to a pre-agreed ratio, with the investor taking a share of the profits and the manager taking a share as a fee.
Musharaka
Musharaka is a partnership agreement between two or more parties, where each party contributes capital and shares in the profits and losses of the project. This is similar to a joint venture agreement in conventional finance.
Ijarah
Ijarah is a lease-based sukuk structure, where the investor buys an asset and leases it back to the issuer. The issuer pays rent to the investor, and at the end of the lease period, the asset is transferred back to the issuer.
Murabaha
Murabaha is a cost-plus financing structure, where the investor buys an asset and sells it to the issuer at a markup. The issuer pays back the cost plus the markup over a period of time. This is similar to a hire-purchase agreement in conventional finance.
Benefits of Investing in Sukuk
There are several benefits to investing in sukuk, including:
Ethical and Socially Responsible Investment
Sukuk offers a way for investors to invest in projects and assets that are halal and socially responsible. This is in line with the principles of Islamic finance, which aim to promote ethical and responsible investments.
Diversification
Investing in it can help diversify a portfolio, as they offer exposure to different asset classes and geographies. Sukuk can also offer lower correlation to conventional financial markets, which can help reduce portfolio volatility.
Potential for Higher Returns
Sukuk can offer competitive returns compared to conventional bonds, due to the profit-sharing nature of the investment. However, it’s important to note that its investments also carry risks, which we’ll discuss in more detail later.
Financing Sustainable Development
Sukuk has the potential to play a significant role in financing sustainable development projects around the world. This is particularly relevant in emerging markets, where there is a growing demand for infrastructure development and social services.
Sukuk Market Trends and Growth
The sukuk market has experienced significant growth in recent years. According to the Islamic Finance Development Report 2020, global sukuk issuance reached $162.1 billion in 2019, up from $115.5 billion in 2018. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing demand for ethical and socially responsible investment options, as well as the growing Muslim population around the world.
The sukuk market is also becoming more diverse, with issuers from a range of industries and geographies entering the market. In 2019, Malaysia was the largest issuer of it, followed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, there is also growing interest in it from other countries, including the UK, Luxembourg, and Nigeria.
Sukuk Issuance and Investment Process
If you’re interested in investing in it, the process is similar to investing in conventional bonds. Sukuk can be bought and sold on the secondary market, or investors can subscribe to new issuances.
The issuance process for it is more complex than for conventional bonds, as it must comply with sharia law. The issuer must first identify a halal asset or project that can be used to underpin the sukuk issuance. The sukuk structure must then be approved by a sharia board of Islamic scholars, who will ensure that it complies with sharia principles. Once the sukuk issuance has been approved, it can be offered to investors.
Risks Associated with Sukuk Investments
Like any investment, sukuk carries risks. Some of the key risks associated with sukuk investments include:
Market Risk
Sukuk prices can be affected by changes in market conditions, such as changes in interest rates, credit ratings, or general economic conditions.
Credit Risk
There is a risk that the issuer of it may default on their payments. This risk can be mitigated by investing in sukuk issued by entities with strong credit ratings and financial fundamentals.
Liquidity Risk
It can be less liquid than conventional bonds, which can make it difficult to sell them quickly if needed.
Sharia Compliance Risk
There is a risk that the sukuk structure may not comply with sharia principles, which could result in the investment being deemed haram.
Sukuk vs Other Investment Options
Sukuk is just one of many investment options available to investors. Conventional bonds, stocks, and real estate are all popular investment options. However, it offers some unique benefits, such as ethical and socially responsible investment options, diversification, and the potential for higher returns.
It’s important to note that its investments may not be suitable for all investors. As with any investment, it’s important to do your research and understand the risks before investing.
Conclusion
Sukuk is a unique financial instrument that is gaining popularity in the Islamic finance industry. It offers investors a way to participate in the ownership of an underlying asset or project, while also receiving a return on their investment.
The rise of sukuk is being fueled by the growing demand for ethical and socially responsible investment options, as well as the potential for financing sustainable development projects around the world. However, like any investment, sukuk carries risks, and investors should do their research before investing.
Overall, sukuk is definitely worth considering for investors who are looking for ethical and socially responsible investment options, as well as diversification and potential for higher returns.
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As an investor, it is essential to understand the concept of inflation risk, especially when investing in fixed income assets. Inflation risk refers to the threat of loss of purchasing power due to rising inflation rates.
When inflation increases, the value of money decreases. This means that the money you invested in fixed income assets may not have the same value in the future, making it harder to buy the same goods and services that it could in the present. This is where inflation risk comes into play, as it affects the real returns on your investments.
Key Takeaways
Inflation risk is a significant risk for investors in fixed income assets.
Inflation risk refers to the possibility of losing purchasing power due to rising inflation rates.
Inflation risk can affect the real returns on your investments.
Understanding Inflation Risk
Inflation risk is the potential for loss of purchasing power due to the effects of inflation. It is a risk that investors in fixed income securities face, as inflation erodes the value of the money they receive from their investments.
Inflation is the rise in the price of goods and services over time. When inflation occurs, the purchasing power of money decreases, as the same amount of money can buy fewer goods or services. This is because the prices of goods and services increase, while the value of money remains constant.
The effects of inflation can impact fixed income securities in various ways. One of the main impacts of inflation is on interest rates. As inflation rises, central banks tend to raise interest rates to control inflation. This results in a decline in the value of fixed income securities, as their yields become less attractive.
Causes of Inflation
Inflation can be caused by a variety of factors, such as:
Supply-side shocks, such as an increase in the cost of raw materials or a decrease in the supply of goods and services.
Demand-side pressures, such as an increase in consumer demand or a decrease in the supply of money.
Structural factors, such as government policies or changes in the global economy.
Effects of Inflation
Inflation can have various effects on fixed income securities, such as:
Reduced purchasing power, which can result in lower real returns for investors.
Increased interest rates, which can decrease the attractiveness of fixed income securities.
Changes in market conditions, which can result in a decline in the value of fixed income securities.
“Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hitman.” – Ronald Reagan
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Types of Fixed Income Investments Affected by Inflation Risk
While inflation risk can impact various types of fixed income investments, there are specific categories that are particularly vulnerable. These include:
Type of Investment
Description
Treasury Bonds
Fixed income securities issued by the US government, which are typically considered low-risk due to their guaranteed interest payments and principal repayment at maturity. However, inflation can erode the real value of these payments, reducing returns for investors.
Corporate Bonds
Fixed income securities issued by corporations, which are typically higher-yielding than treasury bonds due to the added risk of default. Inflation can impact the credit risk of these bonds and reduce their market value, leading to lower returns for investors.
Fixed Annuities
Insurance contracts that guarantee a fixed rate of return over a specified period. Inflation can erode the purchasing power of future payments, reducing the real value of returns for investors.
Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
Bank-issued savings deposits that offer a fixed rate of return over a specified period. Inflation can reduce the real value of returns, particularly if the interest rate is lower than the rate of inflation.
It is important for investors to understand the susceptibility of their fixed income investments to inflation risk in order to make informed decisions about their portfolios. Diversification and investing in inflation-protected securities, such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), can be effective strategies for managing inflation risk in fixed income investments.
Mitigating Inflation Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios
Investors can use several strategies to mitigate inflation risk in their fixed income portfolios. Here are a few techniques:
Diversification
Diversification is essential to mitigate any form of investment risk. Investing in a broad range of fixed income securities with varying maturities, issuers, and credit ratings can help buffer inflation risk. It is advisable to spread investments across different segments of the bond market, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds. This approach reduces the concentration risk in a single security or issuer.
Inflation-Protected Securities
Inflation-protected securities (IPS) are designed to shield investors from inflation risk. These securities are indexed to inflation, and their principal value adjusts regularly based on changes in the inflation rate. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a type of IPS that offer a fixed interest rate plus inflation protection. TIPS are backed by the U.S. government and are considered to be a reliable and low-risk investment.
Short-Term Bonds
Short-term bonds are less susceptible to inflation risk as they have a lower duration. When interest rates rise due to inflation, the prices of long-term bonds decline more than short-term bonds. Therefore, holding short-term bonds reduces the impact of inflation on the portfolio. However, short-term bonds may have lower yields than long-term bonds, and investors should weigh this trade-off.
Managing Bond Duration
Bond duration measures the sensitivity of a bond’s price to changes in interest rates. In general, longer-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and, consequently, inflation risk. Therefore, investors can manage inflation risk by shortening the duration of their bond portfolio. By reducing the duration, their bond portfolio is less sensitive to changes in interest rates, reducing the impact of inflation.
By employing these strategies, investors can mitigate the impact of inflation risk on their fixed income portfolios. However, investors should note that no strategy can entirely eliminate inflation risk.
Assessing Inflation Risk: Measurement and Indicators
Assessing inflation risk is crucial to managing fixed income investments effectively. There are various indicators and metrics used to evaluate the potential impact of inflation on fixed income assets. Some of these include:
Inflation rate: This is the most fundamental indicator for assessing inflation risk. The inflation rate measures the percentage increase in prices of goods and services over a specified period.
Real yield: The real yield is the return on a fixed income asset after accounting for inflation. It provides an estimate of the purchasing power of the investment.
Duration: The duration of a fixed income investment measures its sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation. Typically, longer duration assets are more vulnerable to inflation risk.
CPI: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level for goods and services purchased by households. It is commonly used to estimate the impact of inflation on fixed income investments.
Investors can also use inflation-protected securities, such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), as an indicator of inflation expectations. TIPS adjust their principal value based on changes in the CPI. If the CPI increases, the principal value of TIPS increases, providing investors with a hedge against inflation risk.
Overall, investors should consider a combination of these metrics and indicators to evaluate inflation risk and make informed investment decisions.
Implications of Inflation Risk on Portfolio Performance
Investors in fixed income portfolios are vulnerable to the effects of inflation risk. The erosion of the purchasing power of money over time can have a significant impact on portfolio performance, affecting both capital appreciation and income generation.
One of the primary concerns for investors is the impact of inflation risk on bond yields. As inflation rises, bond yields tend to increase, resulting in a decrease in bond prices. This can lead to a decline in the overall value of fixed income portfolios.
Inflation risk can also affect income generation in fixed income portfolios. As inflation rises, the purchasing power of interest payments on fixed income investments decreases. This can result in a decline in real income, which can impact overall portfolio performance.
Managing inflation risk in fixed income portfolios requires a proactive approach. One strategy is to include inflation-protected securities in the portfolio. These securities are designed to protect against inflation by providing returns that are indexed to inflation rates.
Diversification is another key strategy for managing inflation risk. By investing in a variety of fixed income assets, investors can spread risk across different types of investments and reduce exposure to inflation risk.
Investors should also pay attention to the maturity date of fixed income investments. Longer-term bonds are more vulnerable to the effects of inflation risk compared to shorter-term bonds. As such, investors should consider investing in a mix of short-term and long-term bonds to balance the impact of inflation risk.
In conclusion, managing inflation risk is crucial for investors in fixed income portfolios. By employing strategies such as diversification and investing in inflation-protected securities, investors can mitigate the impact of inflation risk on portfolio performance.
Conclusion
Understanding and managing inflation risk is crucial in protecting the performance and stability of fixed income investments. Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money over time, reduce income generation, and negatively impact capital appreciation.
Investors can mitigate inflation risk by diversifying their portfolios, investing in inflation-protected securities, and monitoring inflation indicators and metrics. It is essential to stay informed and proactive in managing inflation risk to safeguard financial stability.
By implementing effective strategies and techniques, investors can mitigate the impact of inflation risk and achieve their long-term financial goals. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and stay proactive in managing inflation risk.
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Managing your finances can be a daunting task. There are so many different avenues to take when it comes to investing your money, but two of the most common options are wealth management and investment banking. While they may sound similar, these two approaches are actually quite different.
Wealth management focuses on the long-term management of your finances, considering your overall financial goals and objectives. Investment banking, on the other hand, is a more transactional approach that focuses on buying and selling securities for clients.
Understanding the differences between these two approaches is crucial in making informed decisions about your financial future. In this article, we will take a deep dive into the world of wealth management and investment banking, exploring the key differences between these two investment strategies.
So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, read on to learn more about these important financial concepts.
Key differences between wealth management and investment banking
The main difference between wealth management and investment banking is the approach that each takes to managing a client’s finances. Wealth management is a long-term approach that considers a client’s overall financial goals and objectives.
This includes not only investments, but also retirement planning, estate planning, tax planning, and risk management. In contrast, investment banking is a more transactional approach that focuses primarily on buying and selling securities for clients.
Another key difference is the type of clients that each serves. Wealth management is typically geared towards high net worth individuals and families, while investment banking is geared towards corporations and institutions.
Wealth managers work closely with their clients to create personalized investment strategies that align with their goals and objectives, while investment bankers work with corporate clients to raise capital, facilitate mergers and acquisitions, and provide other financial services.
Finally, the compensation structure for each profession is different. Wealth managers typically earn a percentage of the assets under management, while investment bankers earn a combination of base salary and performance-based bonuses.
Wealth management services
Wealth management services typically include investment management, retirement planning, estate planning, tax planning, and risk management. Wealth managers work closely with their clients to understand their financial goals and objectives, and then create customized investment strategies that align with those goals.
This may involve selecting individual stocks and bonds, as well as utilizing various types of investment vehicles such as mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and alternative investments.
Retirement planning is another key component of wealth management. Wealth managers work with their clients to determine how much they need to save for retirement, and then create a plan to help them achieve that goal.
This may include selecting appropriate retirement accounts such as IRAs and 401(k)s, as well as determining when to start taking Social Security benefits.
Estate planning is also an important aspect of wealth management. Wealth managers work with their clients to create an estate plan that outlines how their assets will be distributed after their death.
This may involve creating trusts, setting up charitable foundations, and other strategies to minimize taxes and ensure that the client’s wishes are carried out.
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Investment banking services
Investment banking services are geared towards corporations and institutions, and typically involve raising capital, facilitating mergers and acquisitions, and providing other financial services.
Investment bankers work closely with their clients to understand their financial needs and objectives, and then create customized solutions to meet those needs.
One of the primary services provided by investment bankers is underwriting and issuing securities. This may involve working with a company to issue stock or bonds, and then marketing those securities to investors.
Investment bankers also play a key role in facilitating mergers and acquisitions, providing advice on valuation, negotiating deal terms, and ensuring that the transaction is structured in a tax-efficient manner.
Other services provided by investment bankers include asset management, risk management, and financial advisory services. Investment bankers may also provide research and analysis on various companies and industries to help their clients make informed investment decisions.
Career paths in wealth management and investment banking
Wealth management and investment banking are both highly competitive fields, and require a combination of technical skills and interpersonal abilities. In general, a career in wealth management requires strong analytical skills, attention to detail, and the ability to build relationships with clients.
A background in finance, accounting, or economics is typically required, as well as industry-specific certifications such as the Certified Financial Planner (CFP) designation.
A career in investment banking requires strong analytical skills, financial modeling expertise, and the ability to work in a fast-paced, high-pressure environment.
Investment bankers typically have a background in finance, economics, or business, and may hold advanced degrees such as an MBA. Industry-specific certifications such as the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation may also be required.
Skills required for wealth management and investment banking
Both wealth management and investment banking require a combination of technical skills and interpersonal abilities. In wealth management, strong analytical skills are essential, as wealth managers must be able to analyze financial data and make informed investment decisions.
Attention to detail and the ability to build relationships with clients are also important, as wealth managers must be able to understand their clients’ needs and goals, and then create customized investment strategies that align with those goals.
In investment banking, financial modeling expertise is essential, as investment bankers must be able to analyze company financials and create complex financial models to support their recommendations.
Strong communication and negotiation skills are also important, as investment bankers must be able to present their ideas to clients and negotiate favorable terms for their clients.
Education and certifications for wealth management and investment banking
A background in finance, accounting, or economics is typically required for a career in wealth management or investment banking. Many wealth managers hold industry-specific certifications such as the Certified Financial Planner (CFP) designation, which requires passing a rigorous exam and completing ongoing continuing education requirements.
Investment bankers may hold advanced degrees such as an MBA, and may also hold industry-specific certifications such as the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.
Compensation in wealth management and investment banking
Compensation in wealth management and investment banking can be quite lucrative, but is heavily dependent on performance. Wealth managers typically earn a percentage of the assets under management, which can range from 0.5% to 2% per year.
Investment bankers typically earn a combination of base salary and performance-based bonuses, with the bonus component often making up a significant portion of their compensation.
Pros and cons of working in wealth management and investment banking
Working in wealth management and investment banking can be both rewarding and challenging. Wealth managers have the opportunity to build long-term relationships with their clients and help them achieve their financial goals, but may also face challenges such as market volatility and regulatory changes.
Investment bankers have the opportunity to work on high-profile deals and earn significant compensation, but may also face long hours and intense pressure to meet performance targets.
Conclusion
Wealth management and investment banking are two distinct approaches to managing a client’s finances. Wealth management focuses on the long-term management of a client’s finances, while investment banking is a more transactional approach that focuses on buying and selling securities for clients. Both fields require a combination of technical skills and interpersonal abilities, and can be quite lucrative for those who excel.
Understanding the key differences between these two approaches is crucial in making informed decisions about your financial future.
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Money can be a complicated and intimidating topic for many people. And when it comes to managing wealth, the stakes are high. But what exactly is wealth management, and how does it work? Simply put, wealth management is the process of managing an individual’s financial resources to achieve their long-term goals.
It involves a range of services, from investment planning and portfolio management to tax planning and estate planning. With the right wealth management strategy in place, individuals can protect and grow their assets, while also planning for the future.
In this ultimate guide to wealth management, we’ll explore everything you need to know about this important topic, including key strategies, best practices, and tips for success. Whether you’re just starting to build your wealth or you’re a seasoned investor, this guide will provide you with the knowledge and tools you need to take control of your financial future.
Wealth Management vs. Financial Planning
While wealth management and financial planning are often used interchangeably, they are not the same thing. Financial planning is a broader term that refers to the process of setting financial goals, creating a budget, and developing a plan to achieve those goals. Wealth management, on the other hand, is a subset of financial planning that is focused on managing an individual’s financial resources to achieve those goals.
Wealth management typically involves a more comprehensive approach to financial planning that includes investment management, tax planning, estate planning, and other services. While financial planning is important for everyone, wealth management is typically reserved for individuals with a significant amount of assets to manage.
Benefits of Wealth Management
There are many benefits to engaging in wealth management. One of the primary benefits is that it can help you protect and grow your assets over time. By working with a wealth management advisor, you can develop a plan that is customized to your unique financial situation and goals.
This can help you make informed decisions about your investments and other financial decisions.
Another benefit of wealth management is that it can help you plan for the future. By developing a comprehensive wealth management plan, you can ensure that your assets are protected and distributed according to your wishes.
This can be particularly important for individuals with complex financial situations or estate planning needs.
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The Wealth Management Process
The wealth management process typically involves several key steps, including assessing your financial situation, setting financial goals, creating a wealth management plan, and implementing and monitoring your plan. Let’s take a closer look at each of these steps.
Assessing Your Financial Situation
The first step in the wealth management process is to assess your current financial situation. This involves gathering information about your assets, liabilities, income, and expenses. You will also want to consider your current financial obligations, such as mortgages, loans, and credit card debt. This information will help you get a clear picture of your overall financial health.
Setting Financial Goals
Once you have a clear understanding of your financial situation, the next step is to set financial goals. These goals may include saving for retirement, paying off debt, or building an investment portfolio. It’s important to set specific, measurable goals that are aligned with your overall financial objectives.
Creating a Wealth Management Plan
With your financial goals in mind, the next step is to create a wealth management plan. This plan will outline the steps you need to take to achieve your goals. It may include investment strategies, tax planning strategies, estate planning strategies, and other recommendations. Your wealth management advisor will work with you to develop a plan that is customized to your unique needs and goals.
Implementing and Monitoring Your Plan
Once your wealth management plan is in place, the next step is to implement it and monitor your progress. This may involve making investment decisions, adjusting your plan as needed, and regularly reviewing your portfolio to ensure that it remains aligned with your goals. Your wealth management advisor will work with you to ensure that your plan is on track and making progress toward your long-term financial objectives.
Wealth Management Tools and Resources
There are many tools and resources available to help you with wealth management. These may include financial planning software, investment management tools, and online resources such as financial blogs and podcasts. Your wealth management advisor may also recommend specific tools and resources based on your unique needs and goals.
Choosing a Wealth Management Advisor
Choosing the right wealth management advisor is critical to your success. You will want to look for someone who has experience working with individuals in your financial situation and who has a track record of success. You should also look for an advisor who is a good fit for your personality and communication style. It’s important to meet with several advisors before making a decision to ensure that you find the right fit.
Common Wealth Management Mistakes to Avoid
While wealth management can be a powerful tool for achieving your financial goals, there are some common mistakes that you will want to avoid. One of the biggest mistakes is failing to diversify your investment portfolio. By investing in a variety of asset classes and sectors, you can reduce your overall risk and potentially increase your returns.
Another common mistake is failing to regularly review and adjust your wealth management plan. Your financial situation and goals may change over time, and it’s important to ensure that your plan remains aligned with your needs and objectives.
The Future of Wealth Management
The future of wealth management is likely to be shaped by technology and changing consumer preferences. As more individuals become comfortable with digital tools and platforms, we can expect to see an increase in online wealth management services and robo-advisors. At the same time, there is likely to be a continued demand for personalized, human-driven wealth management services.
Conclusion – Why Wealth Management is Important for Your Financial Future
In conclusion, wealth management is a critical tool for achieving your long-term financial goals. Whether you are just starting to build your wealth or you are a seasoned investor, working with a wealth management advisor can help you protect and grow your assets, while also planning for the future. By following best practices and avoiding common mistakes, you can take control of your financial future and achieve the financial freedom you deserve.
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One of the Fastest Growing Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in KSA
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company, known as Avalon Pharma, is floating 30% of the company’s total issued share capital on the Saudi Exchange’s Main Market. The final offer price implying a market capitalization of SAR1.64bn. We valued Avalon at SAR108.66/share (+32.5% upside to the IPO final price), using both the DCF and multiples valuation techniques.
IPO highlights: Avalon Pharma is floating up to 6mn shares on the Tadawul stock exchange, representing 30% of the company’s issued share capital of 20mn shares. The final offer price for the offering has been set at SAR82 per share, at the top of its range of SAR78-82 per share, implying a market capitalization of SAR1.64bn at listing. All major shareholders, in addition to minorities, are selling parts of their stakes in the offer. The largest seller is Tabbaa National Holding Company owning 60.25% of the company, followed by Talal Yousuf Mahmoud Zahid (21%), Ali Shaher Ahmad Al-Tabbaa(6.6%), Faisal ShaherAhmad Al-Tabbaa(6.4%), and other minorities (5.75%).
The IPO will take place as follows: 1) 100% of the offered shares (6mn shares) will be offered to institutional investors, subject to 10% claw-back if individual investors subscribe to all of the offering shares allocated to them, 2) In the event that individual investors subscribe to all of the offering shares allocated to them, the number of shares allocated to institutional investors would be reduced to 5.4mn shares as a minimum, representing 90% of the total offer shares, and 3) The final allocation will take place after the end of the Individual Investors’ subscription period.
Lock-up period: The current shareholders are subject to a lock-up period of six months, which will begin from commencement of trading of the shares on the Saudi Exchange.
The IPO proceeds: The net proceeds generated by the offering (after deducting the offering expenses ) will be distributed to the selling shareholder according to the number of shares owned by each selling shareholder of the offered shares.
Our fair value is SAR108.1/share: To value Avalon, we used both the discounted cash flow (DCF) and multiples valuation models. We reached an average fair value of SAR108.1/ share, which implies an upside potential of 31.9% versus the final offer price of SAR82 / share.
Investment attractiveness: 1) Defensive industry and favorable regulatory framework, 2) A sizable and growing market share with Avalon Factory (2) to begin commercial production during 2Q24, 3) Optimal business model with a diversified list of suppliers and customers, mitigating supply chain risks, and 4) The company’s plans to expand globally.
Key risks: 1) High competition, and 2) The company must adhere to the pricing rules approved by the Food and Drug Authority that may affect the company’s profit margin.
Offering Details:
Summary KPIs
FY End: December (SAR mn)
FY19a
FY20a
FY21a
FY22a
Revenue
232
302
287
303
Gross profit
152
181
179
188
EBITDA
71
90
84
81
Net Income
54
73
66
59
Revenue Growth (%)
NA
30%
-5%
5%
GP Growth (%)
NA
19%
-1%
5%
EBITDA Growth (%)
NA
27%
-7%
-4%
Net Income Growth (%)
NA
35%
-9%
-10%
GP Margin (%)
65%
60%
62%
62%
EBITDA Margin (%)
31%
30%
29%
27%
NP Margin (%)
23%
24%
23%
20%
Net Debt (Cash) (SAR mn)
4.7
59.6
84.6
82.3
PER (x)
30.3x
22.5x
24.7x
27.6x
PBV (x)
7.5x
6.5x
6.1x
5.9x
ROE (%)
25%
29%
25%
21%
Company Profile
The Leading Provider of Dermatological and Skin Care Products
Saudi-based Avalon Pharma, began operations in 1998. The company develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a wide range of generic medicines and pharmaceuticals in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and abroad through a diversified, high-quality product portfolio covering several therapeutic categories.
The company’s products include the following:
Medicines and preparations used to treat skin diseases, skin creams and skin care products.
Respiratory system medications.
Nervous system medications.
Digestive system medications.
Musculoskeletal system medications.
A variety of medicines and preparations within other therapeutic categories, including sexual system medicines, diabetes, cardiovascular medicines, anti-infective medicines, anti-parasitic medicines, pain relievers, antiseptics, and women’s and men’s health medicines.
Avalon currently has three factories in the city of Riyadh, Avalon Factory (1), Avalon Factory (2), and Avalon Factory (3), which are equipped with production and manufacturing lines for creams, cosmetics, liquid and solid medicines, and disinfectants. The Company has completed the establishment of the Avalon Factory (2) In FY22, with a production capacity of 21.76mn tubes of creams, 16.32mn boxes of liquid pharmaceuticals, and 27.2mn stripes of sold pharmaceuticals.
Since its incorporation, Avalon has focused on increasing the production capacity of factories in tandem with the increase in the volume of demand for its products, as it increased production capacity in several time periods during the years 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2020, the last of which was in 2022 as follows:
Creams production lines: The creams production lines had an annual production capacity of 6.1mn tubes in 2003. This figure rose by 12.9mn tubes in 2010, and surged by 21.76mn tubes in 2022.
Skin and cosmetics production lines: Avalon has maintained an annual production capacity of 3.4mn tubes in its skin and cosmetics production lines since they started production in 2020.
Liquid pharmaceutical production lines: The liquid pharmaceutical production lines had an annual production capacity of 4mn box when the company was established. This figure rose by 9.2mn box in 2007, and surged by 16.32mn box in 2022.
Solid pharmaceutical production lines: The solid pharmaceutical production lines started production in 2013 with an annual production capacity of 8.1mn strips. This capacity rose by 27.2mn strips in 2022.
Disinfectant production lines: The disinfectants production lines had an annual production capacity of 3.5mn box when the company was established. This figure rose by 8.25mn box in 2015 and increased by 2.9376mn box in 2022.
Company Profile (Cont.’d)
A major Expansion is Expected to Start Production During 2Q24
Key Milestone
In 1998, Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company was established.
In 2003, the construction of the Avalon Factory (1) has been completed, with production lines for creams, liquid medicines and disinfectants.
In 2004, Avalon began export and distribution operations outside the Kingdom in the Middle East.
In 2007, the production capacity of the liquid medicine production lines at Avalon Factory (1) has been increased to reach 9,200,000 packages annually.
In 2010, The company’s export sales extended to the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Sudan and Yemen.
In 2010, the production capacity of the cream production lines at Avalon Factory (1) has been increased to 12,900,000 tubes annually.
In 2013, solid pharmaceutical production lines were added at Avalon Plant (1) with a production capacity of 8,100,000 strips annually.
In 2015, the construction of Avalon Factory (3) with disinfectant production lines has been completed, in addition to Avalon Warehouse (2).
In 2019, The Company entered into its first supply and licensing agreement with the Greek Company Elpin Pharmaceutical Inc., through which Avalon supplies and distributes the Greek Company’s products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
In 2019, Avalon has established its UK subsidiary Avalon Pharma UK Holdings Limited.
In 2020, skin and cosmetics production lines were added at Avalon Factory (1) with a production capacity of 3,400,000 tubes annually.
In 2020, the production capacity of the disinfectants production lines at Avalon Factory (3) has been increased to 2,937,600 Boxes annually.
In 2021, Avalon acquired 0.02% stake in the American-listed company Columbia Care Inc., which is listed on the NEO stock market in Canada and operates in the field of manufacturing medical pharmaceuticals and health solutions.
In 2022, Avalon Pharma built a new main warehouse Avalon Warehouse (4), and Avalon Warehouse (2) was converted into a new factory and established with production lines for creams, liquid medicines and solid medicines, as it is expected to begin commercial production during 2Q24.
Avalone’s annual production capacity
Avalone Production Lines
Avalon Factory (1)
Avalon Factory (2)
Avalon Factory (3)
Total Capacity
Creams production lines
19mn tubes
21.76mn tubes
-
40.76mn tubes
Skin and cosmetics production lines
3.4mn tubes
-
-
3.4mn tubes
Liquid pharmaceutical production lines
13.2mn box
16.32mn box
-
29.52mn box
Solid pharmaceutical production lines
8.1mn stripes
27.2mn stripes
-
35.3 stripes
Disinfectants production lines
-
-
14.6876 box
14.6876mn box
Actual Production and Utilization Rates
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
Creams
Total Production Capacity (mn tube)
19.0
19.0
19.0
Actual Production (mn tube)
13.7
13.1
14.3
Utilization Rates (%)
72.1%
68.8%
75.0%
Skin and cosmetic products
Total Production Capacity (mn tube)
3.4
3.4
3.4
Actual Production (mn tube)
0.9
1.2
2.0
Utilization Rates (%)
25.1%
34.7%
58.7%
Liquid medications
Total Production Capacity (mn box)
13.2
13.2
13.2
Actual Production (mn box)
8.2
8.8
12.7
Utilization Rates (%)
62.2%
66.5%
96.0%
Solid medications
Total Production Capacity (mn stripe)
8.1
8.1
8.1
Actual Production (mn stripe)
4.9
6.7
5.6
Utilization Rates (%)
60.3%
82.2%
68.7%
Disinfectants
Total Production Capacity (mn box)
14.7
14.7
14.7
Actual Production (mn box)
11.4
6.4
6.7
Utilization Rates (%)
77.5%
43.5%
45.5%
Business Model
A Sizable and Growing Market Share Ahead, with Plans to Expand Globally
Avalon Pharma develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a wide range of generic medicines and pharmaceuticals in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and abroad through a diversified, high-quality product portfolio covering several therapeutic categories. The company produces more than 250 products, falling under more than 70 brands. Avalon has three factories in the city of Riyadh, Avalon Factory (1), Avalon Factory (2), and Avalon Factory (3), which are equipped with machines, devices, and production lines for manufacturing creams, skin and cosmetic products, liquid and solid medicines, and disinfectants. Avalon factories have advanced and modern production lines for manufacturing creams, skin and cosmetic products, liquid and solid medicines, and disinfectants. They are also equipped with laboratories and quality control departments that work with an integrated and connected approach to manage production processes and monitor all stages of manufacturing to ensure accuracy and speed of production and high quality of the final products.
Avalon is currently working to register 19 new products with the Food and Drug Administration, including 4 skin medicines, 4 respiratory medicines, 1 digestive system medicine, 1 musculoskeletal medicine, and 9 various medicines within the company’s other therapeutic categories. The registration period generally ranges between 12 to 18 months.
Among the most important products of Avalon are dermatology medicines that carry the brand Avogain (a topical solution that stimulates hair growth and prevents hair loss) and Alpha Plus (a cream to lighten pigmentation and unify skin tone), and respiratory medicines that bear the trademark Salinose (saline solution to moisturize and clean the nose) and Avocom (a water nasal spray used to treat the symptoms of seasonal allergic rhinitis and perennial rhinitis), in addition to the brand of sterilizer products EZ Clean , which witnessed an unusual jump in sales during 2020 and 2021 due to the Corona virus pandemic at the time.
Avalon is the market leader in the market of dermatological products, medicines and skin care products, a fast-growing category in Saudi Arabia, with an 8.9% market share. Additionally, the company is one of the top four manufacturers in respiratory therapeutic category, with a 9.1% market share.
The Company’s business extends to many markets in the countries of the GCC region, Middle East and Africa, including Kuwait, UAE, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Egypt, Sudan and Libya.
Business Model (Cont.’d)
Dermatological and Skin Care Products Represent 50% of Total Revenue.
Pricing policy of pharmaceutical products: The pricing process for pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical preparations is subject to the pricing rules approved by the Board of Directors of the Food and Drug Authority. According to these rules, Avalon must always adhere to the pricing regulations for pharmaceutical products, which imposes negotiating pressure on it with its major clients in the government and private sectors. Additionally, the current pricing rules may be subject to future modifications that may affect its profit margins, which the company cannot predict.
Raw Materials: Avalon obtains raw materials from various sources in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, European countries, the United States of America, China, and others. Among the most important raw materials that the company imports are the active ingredients that are used in the pharmaceutical industry, such as the active ingredients Avogain and Minoxidil used in Avogain products, the active ingredient Pump Shenzhen bona used in Rhinaze and Avocom products, and other materials such as Ethanol used in sterilizers, Cetostearyl used in cream products, Propylene Glycol used in a large number of health products and medicines, and others. As for packaging supplies, boxes, packages, etc., Avalon obtains most of them from local companies and merchants in the Kingdom.
During production operations, Avalon factories depend on the availability of water, diesel, and electricity, as their annual need is as follows: 1) The company’s factories consume around 35,000-40,000 cubic liters of water annually, which the company obtains from the National Water Co. 2) The company’s factories need around 700,000-800,000 liters of diesel annually, which the company obtains from local sources. 3) The company’s factories consume around 6-7mn kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, which the company obtains from Saudi Electricity Co.
Avalon has a subsidiary in the United Kingdom and 14 branches; additionally, the company owns:
0.2% stake in the American-listed company Columbia Care Inc., which is listed on the NEO stock market in Canada and operates in the field of manufacturing medical pharmaceuticals and health solutions.
15% stake in Nuha Consultancy Company, which operates in the retail sale of cosmetics and beauty tools in specialized stores.
15% stake in Emulsion Cosmetics Limited, which operates in the retail sale of cosmetics and beauty tools in specialized stores.
Revenues by product categories (SAR mn)
Revenues by product categories (SARmn)
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
Dermatological, and skin care products revenue
105.7
143.0
150.3
Y/Y Growth (%)
NA
35.3%
5.0%
Respiratory medications revenue
35.4
49.5
72.0
Y/Y Growth (%)
NA
40.0%
45.3%
Nervous system medications revenue
22.4
27.5
26.0
Y/Y Growth (%)
NA
22.8%
-5.3%
Digestive system medications revenue
6.8
11.3
13.5
Y/Y Growth (%)
NA
65.6%
19.1%
Musculoskeletal system medications revenue
10.8
14.2
11.6
Y/Y Growth (%)
NA
31.7%
-18.1%
Other medications in various therapeutic classes revenue
120.6
41.7
29.3
Y/Y Growth (%)
NA
-65.4%
-29.7%
Total revenue
301.7
287.2
302.7
Revenues by business sector (SARmn)
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
Revenue from retail customers
158.4
190.9
194.1
208.0
As % of total revenue
68.2%
63.3%
67.6%
68.7%
Revenues from government sector clients
52.6
88.2
65.6
68.6
As % of total revenue
22.6%
29.2%
22.9%
22.7%
Revenue from export clients
21.1
22.6
27.4
26.1
As % of total revenue
9.1%
7.5%
9.6%
8.6%
Total revenue
232.1
301.7
287.2
302.7
COGS Breakdown (SAR mn)
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
Cost of raw materials
21.5
45.3
33.7
39.1
As % of total cost
25.3%
36.2%
29.9%
33.0%
Cost of packaging materials
26.4
39.1
34.7
44.7
As % of total cost
31.0%
31.2%
30.8%
37.8%
Labor cost
18.4
20.0
22.0
24.4
As % of total cost
21.7%
16.0%
19.5%
20.6%
Depreciation & amortization
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.0
As % of total cost
5.3%
3.4%
3.7%
3.4%
Others
14.1
16.6
18.0
6.2
As % of total cost
16.6%
13.3%
16.0%
5.2%
Total COGS
85.0
125.3
112.6
118.4
Industry in a Nutshell
Favorable Market Dynamic
The public healthcare system in Saudi Arabia is managed and financed by the government through the Ministry of Health provides comprehensive healthcare for all its residents via an integrated network of healthcare services across all regions of the Kingdom.
In 2022, Saudi Arabia allocated SAR138bn on healthcare and social development, or 14.4% of its budget. Additionally, under Vision 2030, the Saudi Arabian government plans to invest approximately SAR295bn towards the development of the nation’s healthcare infrastructure. In addition to public spending to improve and advance the healthcare sector, the government also aims to boost private sector participation in the sector by encouraging investments.
In 2022, the total medicine and medical supplements industry was valued at SAR34.5bn and grew at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2018 to 2022. This includes dermatology, respiratory, derma-cosmetics and hygiene products (hand sanitizers) and oral care– which grew by 7.3% during 2018-2022 to reach SAR7.3bn by 2022. These categories contributed 21.2% of the overall medicine and medicinal supplements sector sized at SAR34.5bn as of 2022.
Due to Saudi Arabia’s reliance on imported medicines and medicinal supplements to meet their healthcare demand, the majority of medicine and medical supplements sales to consumers in the country are conducted through large national distributors such as Tamer Group and Al Naghi Brothers.
The total market for dermatological increased by CAGR of 8.9% between 2018 and 2022, reaching SAR2.5bn in 2022, primarily due to factors such as increased disposable income, which allowed for increased spending on pharmaceutical products, skin products, general skin health, all-weather skin care, and skin disease awareness (including early detection of skin cancer).
The total market for dermo-cosmetics increased by CAGR of 2.2% between 2018 and 2022, reaching SAR237mn in 2022, with facial care accounts for the largest market size.
The total market for Hygiene products (hand sanitizers) and oral care (as defined in this study) increased by CAGR of 11.4% between 2018 and 2022, reaching SAR1.4bn in the latter year . The demand for hygiene products (hand sanitizers) and essentials (oral care) during 2018-22 was largely influenced by during the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to the encouragement from the Saudi government’s educational activities to raise awareness on the importance of maintaining good hygiene practices.
The total market for respiratory category increased by CAGR of 4.9% between 2018 and 2022, reaching SAR3.1bn in 2022. This was primarily attributed to factors such as rising air pollution, intense dusty weather, continued high prevalence of smoking among younger age groups, growing awareness of respiratory diseases such as asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), and the ageing of the population.
Valuation
Avg. Fair Values is SAR108.1 / share
Our average Fair Value stands at SAR108.1 / Share: In addition to our discounted cash flow (DCF) model which yielded a fair value of SAR98.9/ share as depicted in the right table, we also conducted a relative valuation using the median P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for FY24 for Avalon’s peers. We used emerging markets peers’ median P/E and EV/EBITDA FY24 multiples and applied them to Avalon’s expected earnings and EBITDA in FY24 to arrive at a fair value for the stock. We assign equal weights to each valuation technique, reaching an average fair value of SAR108.1/share, which is 31.9% higher than the IPO final offer price of SAR82 per share.
DCF – fair value SAR98.9/ share: We discounted Avalon’s free cash Flow to the firm over the coming five years (2024-2028) (FCFF) based on the following assumptions:
Revenues to grow at a 6Y CAGR of 11.1% to SAR568mn by 2028, on the back of growing market share as the company has completed the establishment of the Avalon Factory (2) in FY22, which is expected to begin commercial production during 2Q24.
EBITDA to grow at a 6Y CAGR of 12.6% to SAR165.6mn by 2028, with EBITDA margin to stand at 29% in the forecasted period, in line the Avalon’s historical average.
Cumulative Capex of SAR124mn, averaging 5% of revenues during the forecast period.
Working capital assumptions are based on historical averages cash conversion cycle (CCC).
Cost of Equity (COE) is 8.2%, calculated as follows: SKA implied risk-free rate of 3.1% on average during forecasted period (based on US risk free rate and inflation differential between KSA vs. USA), KSA’s Equity Risk Premium (ERP) of 6.3% (based on a US market ERP of 5.94% and a relative standard deviation of 1.06 between US and KSA equity markets returns), and a Beta of 0.8.
After tax cost of debt 2.5% on average.
Capital structure of 95% equity and 5% debt, based on the market value of Avalon’s equity of SAR 1.64bn (based on the IPO final price).
Hence, we used a WACC of 8.3% in 2024e, which eventually declines to 7.7% by 2028e, with terminal year growth rate of 3%.
Sensitivity analysis: Our DCF fair value is highly sensitive to the changes in both WACC and growth rate in the terminal year. Therefore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for any changes in both WACC and growth rate in the terminal year which resulted in fair values ranged from SAR69.7 to SAR172.4 / share.
DCF Valuation
FV sensitivity to TGR and WACC
Valuation (Cont.’d)
A Possible 31.9% Upside Potential
Multiples valuation:We used emerging markets peers’ median P/E and EV/EBITDA FY24 multiples and applied them to Avalon’s expected earnings and EBITDA in FY24 to arrive at a fair value for the stock as follows:
P/E: Using peers’ median FY24 P/E of 28.3x and our forecasted net income for FY24, we arrived at a fair value of SAR127.96/ share.
EV/EBITDA: By applying peers’ median FY24 EV/EBITDA of 17.3x to our forecasted FY24 EBITDA, we arrived at a fair value of SAR97.51/ share.
Our FV is SAR108.1 / share based on equal weights: We assign equal weights to both valuation techniques, reaching a fair value of SAR108.1/ share, which represents 31.9% higher than the IPO final price of SAR82 per share.
Investment rationale:
One of the fastest growing home-grown pharmaceutical manufacturing companies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Defensive industry and favorable regulatory framework.
Optimal business model with a diversified list of suppliers and customers, mitigating supply chain risks.
A sizable and growing market share ahead as the company has recently completed a major expansion by doubling its manufacturing capacity, which is expected to start production by the second quarter of 2024.
Avalon Pharma is the market leader in the market of dermatological products, medicines and skin care products, a fast-growing category in Saudi Arabia, with an 8.9% market share.
Avalon Pharma is one of the top four manufacturers in Respiratory therapeutic category, with a 9.1% market share.
The company’s plans to expand its export market, a fast-growing channel for Avalon, including the introduction of new sub-distribution partnerships in key countries.
Key Risks:
Avalon must always adhere to the pricing rules approved by the Food and Drug Authority that may affect the company’s profit margin.
Fierce competition.
The company is exposed to the risk of withdrawing its products from the market.
